Analysis:  A female has never won the Oscar for Best Director.  In fact, Bigelow is now only the fourth female ever nominated in this category.  The Hurt Locker has received the most critical support of any film.  My gut says that not only does she probably deserve the award, but people will also want to see a female finally win for director.  When deserving and sentiment go hand in hand, the result most often is an Oscar victory. Bigelow has won many precursor awards for her directing, most importantly the Directors Guild Award, where in the previous 61 years the winner has gone on to win the Oscar 55 times. James Cameron (Avatar) and Harvey Weinstein (Producer of Inglourious Basterds) have also seemed to have conceded on the Best Director race, each pushing for Bigelow to win Best Director and for their own films to win Best Picture.  I have a feeling the director category most closely resembles what would have been the Best Picture nominees if we still only had five. 

Will Win - Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker

Should Win - Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker

Could Win - James Cameron, Avatar